Bernalillo, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

287
FXUS65 KABQ 311132 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
532 AM MDT Thu Jul 31 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 501 AM MDT Thu Jul 31 2025

- A monsoon moisture plume will remain over the area through
  Friday with locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding possible,
  especially around burn scars, urban areas, locations with
  saturated ground, and poorly drained areas. Rainfall rates will
  exceed 2 inches per hour with a few of the stronger storms.

- High pressure will build overhead early next week reducing
  thunderstorm coverage and resulting in moderate heat risk in
  many lower-elevation locations, except for locally major heat
  risk to the southeast plains including Roswell.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 1212 AM MDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Nocturnal convection continues across central and eastern NM,
with a buoyant and moist atmosphere in place. Slow storm motion
and PWATs at or above the 90th percentile will be the name of the
game again today, meaning a continued threat for locally heavy
rainfall and potential flash flooding. The forecast zones with the
highest confidence for flash flooding have been included in a
watch for Thursday, namely the southwest mountains and the HPCC
and Ruidoso area burn scars. We`ll likely get off to a slower
start over the burn scars today given the atmosphere has been
worked-over and will take a little extra time to destabilize.
Convection will likely persist until at least midnight Thursday
given no significant changes to the atmosphere forecast. The upper
high will recenter over southeast AZ and the NM Bootheel Friday,
steering drier westerlies into northwest NM and beginning a drying
trend. However, elevated PWATs will remain over the area and the
threat for locally heavy rainfall and potential flash flooding
will persist. As westerly winds aloft hit northeast NM late
Friday, 0-6km bulk shear will trend up and interact with modest
instability to produce a few strong to severe storms.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1212 AM MDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Strong to potentially severe storms will persist Friday evening
near the OK/TX Panhandles and will likely produce locally heavy
rainfall and potential flash flooding as well. Far northeast NM
will be favored for more strong to potentially severe storms on
Saturday afternoon/evening as well, but otherwise a notable
warming/drying trend will begin. That trend will ramp-up on Sunday
as the upper high expands over the region and then centers over
the state from Monday through Wednesday, favoring heat impacts
over thunderstorm impacts. Moderate heat risk is forecast for much
of the central and eastern lower elevations from Sunday through
Wednesday as pressure heights climb to near 600dam at 500mb.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 501 AM MDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Short-lived MVFR conditions are likely with scattered to numerous
showers and storms this afternoon and evening, including
lower probabilities for impacts to the KABQ/KAEG airspace.
Strong/erratic wind gusts are possible at KFMN and KGUP late
this afternoon with isolated high-based showers and storms. A
gusty east canyon wind will likely develop at KABQ by early
evening due to outflow from storms east of the Sandia/Manzano
Mountains.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1212 AM MDT Thu Jul 31 2025

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through the next
seven days, although elevated conditions are likely across western
NM on Sunday. Otherwise, a Monsoon moisture plume remains over
the area and will result in good chances for wetting storms
through at least Friday, with the mountains and northeast NM
favored for soaking rains. Sunday through Tuesday will be hot and
mostly dry with an upper high sitting over the state.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  93  64  92  65 /  10  30   5   5
Dulce...........................  88  47  87  48 /  50  60  40  20
Cuba............................  85  54  86  57 /  50  70  40  30
Gallup..........................  90  52  90  54 /  40  30  20  10
El Morro........................  85  54  85  56 /  60  60  60  30
Grants..........................  87  55  87  56 /  60  60  60  30
Quemado.........................  85  57  86  58 /  70  50  70  40
Magdalena.......................  82  60  84  62 /  70  50  60  20
Datil...........................  81  54  83  57 /  80  60  70  30
Reserve.........................  88  54  91  56 /  90  50  70  20
Glenwood........................  93  58  94  61 /  80  50  60  20
Chama...........................  81  47  81  49 /  70  60  60  20
Los Alamos......................  80  56  80  59 /  70  60  60  20
Pecos...........................  78  54  81  56 /  70  60  60  30
Cerro/Questa....................  80  52  80  53 /  80  70  70  30
Red River.......................  71  44  71  46 /  80  70  70  30
Angel Fire......................  73  40  73  41 /  80  70  70  30
Taos............................  82  51  82  51 /  70  70  60  30
Mora............................  75  48  78  50 /  80  70  70  30
Espanola........................  88  58  88  59 /  60  60  40  30
Santa Fe........................  81  58  82  60 /  60  60  50  30
Santa Fe Airport................  85  57  85  58 /  60  60  40  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  87  64  88  68 /  60  60  50  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  89  64  90  66 /  50  60  30  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  91  63  92  66 /  50  60  20  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  89  63  90  66 /  50  50  30  20
Belen...........................  91  61  92  63 /  50  50  20  20
Bernalillo......................  91  62  91  64 /  50  60  30  30
Bosque Farms....................  91  60  91  63 /  50  50  20  20
Corrales........................  91  63  91  66 /  50  60  30  30
Los Lunas.......................  91  62  91  64 /  50  50  20  20
Placitas........................  86  61  87  64 /  50  60  40  30
Rio Rancho......................  90  63  90  65 /  50  60  30  30
Socorro.........................  91  64  93  66 /  60  50  30  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  81  55  83  59 /  60  60  40  30
Tijeras.........................  82  58  84  61 /  60  60  40  30
Edgewood........................  82  53  84  55 /  60  50  40  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  83  53  85  53 /  60  50  40  20
Clines Corners..................  75  54  78  56 /  60  50  40  20
Mountainair.....................  80  55  83  57 /  70  50  40  20
Gran Quivira....................  79  55  82  57 /  70  50  50  20
Carrizozo.......................  83  62  86  64 /  70  40  40  10
Ruidoso.........................  75  55  77  57 /  80  30  50   5
Capulin.........................  75  53  78  51 /  60  70  60  50
Raton...........................  80  53  81  51 /  70  70  60  30
Springer........................  82  55  84  53 /  60  70  60  30
Las Vegas.......................  76  53  79  53 /  70  60  60  30
Clayton.........................  79  60  82  59 /  40  50  30  50
Roy.............................  78  57  80  56 /  50  70  40  40
Conchas.........................  84  62  88  61 /  40  50  30  40
Santa Rosa......................  81  60  85  59 /  50  50  30  30
Tucumcari.......................  80  59  84  60 /  40  50  20  30
Clovis..........................  86  64  89  64 /  40  40  20  30
Portales........................  87  65  91  64 /  30  40  20  30
Fort Sumner.....................  86  64  89  64 /  40  30  10  20
Roswell.........................  91  68  93  68 /  20  20  10   5
Picacho.........................  83  61  86  61 /  50  30  30   5
Elk.............................  81  58  84  58 /  60  20  30   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for NMZ208-
209-214-215-226-229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11